General Electric Follow Up
I just wanted to post a quick follow up (after a well satisfying Pakistani meal). On Friday I was disappointed on the GE stock price performance. Yes they missed revenue, but it's still a solid company. However, one thing I did say was that I felt it would recover back to the prior day's close, and it did! Closed at $19.15, exactly the same as the prior day's close. I'm actually pretty impressed at myself, I firmly believe this company should support a strong stock price, and there is a case for a minimum price of $20.
Let's see in a couple weeks what they do with the dividend. It looks like they may be able to resume the dividend from GE Capital, and this would get passed onto shareholders. This is subject to fed approval, and so it seems somewhat unlikely given what they've done for the rest of financial sector dividends. Based on history, I'm looking for a dividend announcement on the 3rd of February. Even if GE Capital cannot resume their dividend, perhaps they will still give us an extra penny per share. I'm an optimist.
I look forward to seeing where this will go this week, I'm bullish, of course, but it's a low volatility stock and it might hover in the mid-19's for the week before breaking out past $20 next week.
Good luck to all
My Quest to Save More Money
I don't budget. I tried to do it, but it was difficult to track and balance, and I never really spent beyond what I set aside. Budgets never worked for me because I never really needed a budget. Most of my saving is automatic, and whatever is left becomes my living expenses. Beyond that, if there is excess, I typically dump that into the savings account or stock market.
So why am I trying to save more? I feel like it, that's why. I've realised that over the last year I've gotten less disciplined with my spending. Yes, I still put away a set minimum amount into savings every month, but in some respects my spending has gotten out of control. Also, as a single male American living in the UK, I have additional expenses that crop up from time to time. Even if you aren't an ex-pat like me, you might find yourself spending a bit too much on some of these things:
- Eating Lunch Out: I eat out every day at lunch. I try to keep the cost down by shopping for cheap stuff at the grocery store or limiting my portions, but either way I find it practically impossible to bring my own lunch. Average expense £5.00 per lunch. At a sit-down place with maybe one pint involved, £10-12 per lunch.
- Drinks after work: Since I work really hard I need to blow off some steam with my workmates at the pub. And since this is London, it's much easier to find drinking buddies on any given day of the week, whereas in the US I'd be hard up to find someone willing to have a few jars on a Tuesday night. Sometimes it becomes very frequent, especially around the holidays when, for various reasons, I find myself going out five or six nights a week. On top of that, the larger the crowd the larger the expense: when it's just me and one mate, we buy rounds back and forth in even numbers, but when you add a third or a fourth it starts to add up because an asymmetrical distribution begins to occur. Average cost £25 per night out
- Spontaneous / unplanned dinners: Most likely I'm out for a drinks and a few of us decide to get some dinner, a nice sit-down place might be relatively inexpensive, but add in drinks and we could be looking at £20 per person, or in the case of last Friday night, £40 per person. On the cheaper end of the spectrum, it may be too late in the evening to cook at home or I simply may not have the energy; enter kebabs, sandwiches, and even McDonald's (I love you MCD!). This isn't that bad, less than £5 usually. On average the spontaneous dinner might cost about £15 per event.
- Other random stuff: Taxi fares are usually the result of being out after midnight, when the tube shuts down and bus routes might not be optimal from my location. I usually try to get a night bus, but in some cases it's totally inconvenient and a cab will have to do. This could be anywhere from £10 to £30 depending on where I find myself. Or what about spoilage, which is also highly correlated to the number of times I go out in a week. If I buy fresh fruit or other quickly perishable fresh foods and don't finish them all before they go bad, I've just wasted money. I recently threw out half a tub of grapes worth £1.50 because they were well past the "use by" date. I suppose we could debate the merits of those dates, but after a while they look OK but I'm uncomfortable with the prospect of what half-fermented grapes are going to do to my bowels.
So the goal here is simple: minimise those expense events. Recognise when these are going to happen or when they are in the making. It's not necessary to eliminate them entirely, in fact I need time to hang out with my friends, drink a few beers, eat out, and get away from the house. There is a certain amount of utility derived from these activities. Yes I am spending money, but I'm also getting satisfaction of blowing off steam with my mates over some pints and a curry dish. Plus I can't really make my own curry, so if I really want it I'm going to pay for it at a restaurant.
The point here is that I need not make drastic changes, I just don't need to overindulge. On top of the expense, I think the utility is actually diminishing as I increase the frequency. Being at the pub every night of the week can be less and less therapeutic as the week goes on, and it's not healthy. Being even mildly hungover at work the next day is not pleasant.
So what now, and why should you care? Well I'm not asking you to care, all I'm saying is that you might have some of the same experiences as me; i.e. you make good money and save most of it, but would like to cut out these unnecessary and potentially utility-neutral/negative expenses. I think that by paying more attention to these things, and writing about it, can help me to identify and reduce their frequency. So for the next few weeks I'm going to track my expenses and note where I have actively taken steps to avoid or reduce them. I will continuously reflect on this to make improvements, and measure my results with money in the bank. It's not altogether easily measured, but I'll take my best shot. I hope that the readers of this experience will get some benefit, and hopefully share their own experiences in similar endeavours.
As it stands right now, I've procured about £11 worth of groceries to cover me for at least three or four days, but I've also got plans to go to a curry house tonight. I'll probably spend about £20, but I'm seeing friends and having a good time out of my flat. I'll probably make up for it next week by avoiding pubs and packing a lunch two or three days, or maybe I'll fall back into my prior routine. We'll see, but my hope is that by documenting it I can reflect better on the true impact of my behaviour.
Tune in later for more updates.
Do you have a similar experience, please comment below!
Market Perspectives for 18 January 2011
We've got mixed news in the markets today, Goldman beat the street, but their numbers were down overall. Enthusiasm from Europe seems to be wearing out, but I think US investors are still very optimistic about a stateside recovery.
Big movers this morning from my watch list:
TTM up 2.5%
DD up 1.65%
MCD up 1.1% (acting a bit volatile in the early session, sputtering up and down between 101.45 and 101.75), looking for a lead back down to closing levels of about 101
GE up 1% (I'm watching this one closely, as it popped pretty big yesterday morning and slowly but surely fizzled out to a loss on the day, opened this morning at a loss and is slowly recovering, looking for it to hit 19 before the close).
Still bullish on GE! Long term bullish on MCD, but looking for a pullback from 52-week high set today. MCD has been setting 52-week highs pretty regularly for the last few weeks, and they always drop from them, expect this to fall back to 101, if not below.
That is all for now, check in later in the day!
Market Perspectives for 17 January 2011
It was an exciting morning, starting off with great numbers from Asia, followed by a European rally on the French bond sale and a buoy in the Eurodollar, then an immediate early morning rally in the US markets. There was great excitement this morning coming off the three day holiday weekend.
Then, around lunchtime, it slowly started to fizzle out as selling pressure began to weigh in. That's the problem with quick pop rallies, they always precede a sell off. If I was holding short bullish positions over the weekend I would take this mornings activity as a godsend opportunity to take profits, and I recon that's what most traders did today. Everything looks pretty beautiful for the first two hours of trading, pulling in lots of buying volume, followed by even heavier selling volume.
My sentiment this week is bullish going into some big names in earnings, and I'm particularly looking forward to GE earnings this Friday. I'm really counting on them to raise the dividend again, even if just a tiny bit. See, a few years ago GE cut back it's healthy dividend and held it steady for a year before slowly raising it. They have been consistent in raising their dividend more frequently than once a year, and I feel that the pace will increase further.
Check here for GE dividend history over the last five years
Now then, my guess is as good as anyone else, since they just raised their dividend payable January 25. However, GE is sitting on a lot of cash and I think their earnings are going to surprise the street, and shareholders are demanding a lot more return for their loyal investment, I know I am. I don't think they have much choice except to raise the dividend, even if only $0.005 or $0.01 per share, every little bit counts for those holding large blocks. My price target here is $20/share after earnings, and higher leading into the next quarter's release.
As for the rest of wall street, the market sentiment for 2012 will be a bit more firm after we get through the next two weeks of earnings, particularly with tech releasing results early in the week, and the big conglomerates next week. Economic indicators are showing improvements, but corporate earnings are the true test of growth. If the big boys can show cash earnings growth then I'll take it as a bullish signal for the next few weeks, until more numbers are released. Options are key in this volatile market, hedge your bets and bet your instincts. Good luck to all
Full disclosure: I am long GE and holding a small position.