Logical Progress Advancing a Little Bit Every Day

20Jan/120

Reflections on an earnings prediction

Well my friends, I was wrong.

While GE did beat EPS estimates, they missed on revenue. This caused a huge sell off in the pre-market, pushing the stock down about 4% off the previous close. I missed the conference call but haven't seen any news about a dividend increase. I'm holding out until next quarter for that. In the meantime, there was some caution from the Seeking Alpha community in an interesting article here:

Traders Should Lean Short On GE After Friday's Pre-Market Earnings Report

The author is pointing out that even when GE beats estimates, it usually results in a sell-off.
This article didn't really come out in time for me to exit my February $20 calls for a measly profit, instead I'm stuck hoping for a recovery. The premiums on the $20's aren't too bad right now, as the stock is slowly recovering back above $19.

Looking to see this close back above $19, with significant fluctuation around the that mark. I think there is huge growth opportunity for GE in 2012, and while Europe remains questionable I think their position in the US is solid. By the end of today I think GE will recover back to to yesterday's close of $19.15.

I'm not abandoning my $20 calls, as I still have a few weeks of time value remaining, I think this is just a brief earnings shock. If earnings were really bad, we'd be below $18 at this point, but the market activity is proving positive. With a few more weeks, this low volatility stock will be above $20 and I'll take my profits on the calls.

Good luck to all

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