Market Perspectives for 17 January 2011
It was an exciting morning, starting off with great numbers from Asia, followed by a European rally on the French bond sale and a buoy in the Eurodollar, then an immediate early morning rally in the US markets. There was great excitement this morning coming off the three day holiday weekend.
Then, around lunchtime, it slowly started to fizzle out as selling pressure began to weigh in. That's the problem with quick pop rallies, they always precede a sell off. If I was holding short bullish positions over the weekend I would take this mornings activity as a godsend opportunity to take profits, and I recon that's what most traders did today. Everything looks pretty beautiful for the first two hours of trading, pulling in lots of buying volume, followed by even heavier selling volume.
My sentiment this week is bullish going into some big names in earnings, and I'm particularly looking forward to GE earnings this Friday. I'm really counting on them to raise the dividend again, even if just a tiny bit. See, a few years ago GE cut back it's healthy dividend and held it steady for a year before slowly raising it. They have been consistent in raising their dividend more frequently than once a year, and I feel that the pace will increase further.
Check here for GE dividend history over the last five years
Now then, my guess is as good as anyone else, since they just raised their dividend payable January 25. However, GE is sitting on a lot of cash and I think their earnings are going to surprise the street, and shareholders are demanding a lot more return for their loyal investment, I know I am. I don't think they have much choice except to raise the dividend, even if only $0.005 or $0.01 per share, every little bit counts for those holding large blocks. My price target here is $20/share after earnings, and higher leading into the next quarter's release.
As for the rest of wall street, the market sentiment for 2012 will be a bit more firm after we get through the next two weeks of earnings, particularly with tech releasing results early in the week, and the big conglomerates next week. Economic indicators are showing improvements, but corporate earnings are the true test of growth. If the big boys can show cash earnings growth then I'll take it as a bullish signal for the next few weeks, until more numbers are released. Options are key in this volatile market, hedge your bets and bet your instincts. Good luck to all
Full disclosure: I am long GE and holding a small position.